field notes
a daily morning brief on corn, soybeans, wheat, and the rest of the row-crop and livestock complex. published before the us open — positions and p&l refreshed at 4:15pm et each session.
standing resources
forward-risk board
weekly crop-stage weather read across the us corn belt + brazil safrinha
options board
atm iv, 25d skew, and vol-smile progression for corn (zcn6, zcz6) + soy (zsn6, zsx6)
demand board
demand trajectory across corn + soy — exports, ethanol grind, feed demand, crush, basis, br fob
balance sheets
us corn + soy balance sheet — 5y history + latest two usda wasde prints + arcanum forecast + stocks/use → spread regression chart
crop conditions
weekly usda good/fair/poor ratings, parsed and plotted
export inspections
weekly grain inspections vs. five-year average
export sales
usda fas weekly sales + shipments with full-year extrapolations
cot tracker
commitment of traders positioning, rolled weekly
forward curves
corn & soybean curves: today vs. 1w and 1m ago
seasonal weather
per-state ytd temperature + accumulated precip vs the 10-year envelope, with gfs forecast drift
live positions · 0 open
| contract | side | entered | entry | stop | target | current | p&l | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no open positions — the book is flat. | ||||||||
equity curve
track record reset — the curve opens with the first published trade.
trade history · 0 closed
| contract | side | opened | closed | entry | exit | p&l |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no closed trades — clean track record; opens with the first gated entry. | ||||||
brief archive · all pdfs
- 11 jul 26 vol. 014 — the line breaks, the fuel burns with it
- 04 jul 26 vol. 013 — the count clears, the line holds
- 27 jun 26 vol. 012 — the reclaim slips, the count arrives
- 20 jun 26 vol. 011 — the chart turns, the count waits
- 16 jun 26 vol. 010 — everything cleared but the chart
- 06 jun 26 vol. 009 — the gate opened into a falling market
- 30 may 26 vol 008 the longs let go the bid did not follow
- 23 may 26 vol. 007 — the catalyst landed, and it said wait
- 16 may 26 vol 006 the new crop frame opens
- 09 may 26 vol 005 the binary that opens new crop
- 02 may 26 vol. 004 — the gap closed itself