field notes
a daily morning brief on corn, soybeans, wheat, and the rest of the row-crop and livestock complex. published before the us open — positions and p&l refreshed at 4:15pm et each session.
standing resources
forward-risk board
weekly crop-stage weather read across the us corn belt + brazil safrinha
options board
atm iv, 25d skew, and vol-smile progression for corn (zcn6, zcz6) + soy (zsn6, zsx6)
demand board
demand trajectory across corn + soy — exports, ethanol grind, feed demand, crush, basis, br fob
balance sheets
us corn + soy balance sheet — 5y history + latest two usda wasde prints + arcanum forecast + stocks/use → spread regression chart
crop conditions
weekly usda good/fair/poor ratings, parsed and plotted
export inspections
weekly grain inspections vs. five-year average
export sales
usda fas weekly sales + shipments with full-year extrapolations
cot tracker
commitment of traders positioning, rolled weekly
forward curves
corn & soybean curves: today vs. 1w and 1m ago
weather anomaly overlay
8-14 day precip & temp anomalies over the belt
live positions · 0 open
| contract | side | entered | entry | stop | target | current | p&l |
|---|
equity curve · since oct 25
trade history · 12 closed
| contract | side | opened | closed | entry | exit | p&l |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| zcn6 corn | long | 15 apr 26 | 8 may 26 | 460.75 | 467.25 | +1.41% |
| zsn6 soy | long | 8 apr 26 | 8 may 26 | 1177.25 | 1191.00 | +1.17% |
| zwn6 wheat | short | 18 apr 26 | 25 apr 26 | 598.00 | 616.25 | -3.05% |
| zcn6 corn | long | 18 mar 26 | 4 apr 26 | 474.75 | 463.25 | -2.42% |
| zsn6 soy | short | 2 mar 26 | 14 mar 26 | 1175.00 | 1236.50 | -5.23% |
| zwn6 wheat | long | 12 feb 26 | 28 feb 26 | 566.25 | 599.25 | +5.83% |
| ctn6 cotton | long | 20 jan 26 | 5 feb 26 | 76.80 | 79.41 | +3.40% |
| lez6 cattle | short | 8 jan 26 | 22 jan 26 | 228.22 | 229.18 | -0.42% |
| zsn6 soy | long | 15 dec 25 | 3 jan 26 | 1105.00 | 1072.00 | -2.99% |
| zcn6 corn | short | 20 nov 25 | 5 dec 25 | 450.75 | 457.75 | -1.55% |
| zmn6 meal | long | 10 oct 25 | 28 oct 25 | 296.50 | 321.90 | +8.57% |
| zcn6 corn | long | 22 sep 25 | 3 oct 25 | 454.50 | 453.00 | -0.33% |
brief archive · all pdfs
- 30 may 26 vol 008 the longs let go the bid did not follow
- 23 may 26 vol. 007 — the catalyst landed, and it said wait
- 16 may 26 vol 006 the new crop frame opens
- 09 may 26 vol 005 the binary that opens new crop
- 02 may 26 vol. 004 — the gap closed itself