demand board
physical and paper demand trajectory across corn and soy — where pull-through is strengthening, where it's breaking, and which signals are leading the reprice into the next WASDE.
demand read as of 1 jun
demand · corn
sales pace slightly ahead of 5yr avg, running ~62% of WASDE target with 18 weeks to go. benign — no reprice signal yet.
shipments outpacing prior year by a clean margin, confirming the FAS sales book is bleeding through. the physical pace is the bullish tell; paper is still lagging.
weekly production holding the upper channel despite gas-crack compression. corn use for ethanol tracking roughly in line with WASDE's ~5.3B bu annual figure; no surprise catalyst here absent a RINs regime shift.
on-feed inventory near the 5yr avg with placements running slightly below. feedlot corn demand stable; the surprise would be a placement shock tied to drought forcing — watch plains grass conditions.
demand · soybeans
sales pace soft relative to WASDE — running ~5% below target trajectory. if china does not step up, USDA will cut exports at the may WASDE; crush will be the plug. watch weekly flash sales closely.
shipments tracking prior year but below 5yr avg; BR origin is taking the marginal chinese ton. when safrinha logistics ease in jul-aug, window for US re-opens — not yet.
placements running modestly ahead of prior year; 6-7 week lead on soy-meal disappearance implies meal demand firms into early summer. consistent with why crush margins are supported here.
NOPA crush near-record for march with oil stocks tighter than seasonal. renewable-diesel pull keeps the oil side firm; meal is the swing factor — watch poultry hatchery and export meal premium.
demand · cross-product
breeding herd holding — corn + soy-meal demand trajectory from hogs is steady, not a source of surprise into summer.
western belt corn basis firming while nola soy spot weakens — a domestic / export divergence. if it persists, look for the board to catch up via stronger cash carry for corn, softer for soy.
BR corn premium flipped negative — global corn pricing has moved off US gulf. US soy still premium to BR by narrow margin, but the gap is closing as paranagua logistics thaw. watch the NOLA-vs-santos spread for the export-window handoff.
- soy export pace undershooting WASDE target — crush absorbing the excess
- corn shipments strong, but BR safrinha about to re-enter the export window
- broiler placements 5-week trail implies soy-meal pull firming into jun