usda fas · export sales · weekly
export sales
weekly forward bookings and shipments of u.s. corn and soybeans via the usda fas export sales reporting program. each commodity shows both the current and next marketing year against a five-year historical band; the cumulative net-sales chart projects forward from this week's pace, the cumulative shipments chart compares that path against the live wasde target, and the destination chart breaks current outstanding sales and shipments-to-date by buyer.
summary
corn
latest data wk ending 9 jul 2026
current my (2025/26)
cmy
this week
net sales 12m bu
+222.7% wow
full-my pace
| value | vs 5y avg | vs wasde | |
|---|---|---|---|
| cum net sales | 2.57b bu | +59% | 77% of wasde |
| cum shipped | 2.88b bu | +58% | 87% of wasde |
| outstanding | 521m bu | +78% | — |
implied risk to wasde
- wasde target
- 3.33b bu · jul 2026 (psd online)
cross-checks · all scenarios
| scenario | eom proj | vs wasde |
|---|---|---|
| current pace continued | 3.25b bu | -2.1% |
| analog year (rest-of-my delta) (outstanding sales match · 2021/22) | 3.09b bu | -7.2% |
| 5y avg pace | 3.11b bu | -6.3% |
weights · bottom-up 0.4 · pace continued 0.3 · analog 0.2 · 5y avg 0.1
- arcanum mid (raw)
- 3.17b bu (-4.5% vs wasde, pre-tilts)
- rest of my needs to run
- 1.88× of 5y avg (+88% vs 5y avg)
importer demand signal · top 5 buyers
| country | share | s/u z | end-stk z | combined | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| mexico | 25% | — | +1.3σ | +1.31σ | loose |
| japan | 18% | — | +1.1σ | +1.14σ | loose |
| korea, republic of | 11% | — | +1.3σ | +1.25σ | loose |
| colombia | 10% | — | +0.6σ | +0.60σ | somewhat loose |
| taiwan | 4% | — | -1.9σ | -1.86σ | tight |
aggregate +0.96σ → tilt
-1.9%
- arcanum mid (adjusted)
- 3.11b bu (-6.4%, -211m bu vs wasde)
arcanum bias: ▼ modest downward bias
next my (2026/27)
nmy
this week
net sales 12m bu
-45.0% wow
full-my pace
| value | vs 5y avg | vs wasde | |
|---|---|---|---|
| cum net sales | 266m bu | -5% | 8% of wasde |
| outstanding | 270m bu | -6% | — |
implied risk to wasde
- wasde target
- 3.20b bu · jul 2026 (psd online)
cross-checks · all scenarios
| scenario | eom proj | vs wasde |
|---|---|---|
| current pace continued | 485m bu | -84.9% |
| analog year (rest-of-my delta) (outstanding sales match · 2019/20) | 676m bu | -78.9% |
| 5y avg pace | 496m bu | -84.5% |
weights · bottom-up 0.4 · pace continued 0.3 · analog 0.2 · 5y avg 0.1
- arcanum mid (raw)
- 550m bu (-82.8% vs wasde, pre-tilts)
- rest of my needs to run
- 12.75× of 5y avg (+1175% vs 5y avg)
- arcanum mid (adjusted)
- 550m bu (-82.8%, -2.65b bu vs wasde)
arcanum bias: ▼ wasde likely revised DOWN
soybeans
latest data wk ending 9 jul 2026
current my (2025/26)
cmy
this week
net sales 7m bu
-30.7% wow
full-my pace
| value | vs 5y avg | vs wasde | |
|---|---|---|---|
| cum net sales | 1.22b bu | -8% | 80% of wasde |
| cum shipped | 1.40b bu | -21% | 92% of wasde |
| outstanding | 115m bu | -36% | — |
implied risk to wasde
- wasde target
- 1.52b bu · jul 2026 (psd online)
cross-checks · all scenarios
| scenario | eom proj | vs wasde |
|---|---|---|
| current pace continued | 1.50b bu | -1.4% |
| analog year (rest-of-my delta) (outstanding sales match · 2019/20) | 1.61b bu | +6.0% |
| 5y avg pace | 1.52b bu | +0.3% |
weights · bottom-up 0.4 · pace continued 0.3 · analog 0.2 · 5y avg 0.1
- arcanum mid (raw)
- 1.54b bu (+1.4% vs wasde, pre-tilts)
- rest of my needs to run
- 0.96× of 5y avg (-4% vs 5y avg)
importer demand signal · top 5 buyers
| country | share | s/u z | end-stk z | combined | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| china, peoples republic of | 32% | — | +1.2σ | +1.23σ | loose |
| egypt | 12% | — | +1.6σ | +1.56σ | loose |
| mexico | 8% | — | +0.9σ | +0.88σ | somewhat loose |
| indonesia | 6% | — | +1.7σ | +1.72σ | loose |
| japan | 5% | — | -0.8σ | -0.77σ | somewhat tight |
aggregate +1.13σ → tilt
-2.3%
- arcanum mid (adjusted)
- 1.51b bu (-0.9%, -14m bu vs wasde)
arcanum bias: ● consistent with current pace
next my (2026/27)
nmy
this week
net sales 65m bu
+234.2% wow
full-my pace
| value | vs 5y avg | vs wasde | |
|---|---|---|---|
| cum net sales | 169m bu | -39% | 10% of wasde |
| outstanding | 169m bu | -39% | — |
implied risk to wasde
- wasde target
- 1.66b bu · jul 2026 (psd online)
cross-checks · all scenarios
| scenario | eom proj | vs wasde |
|---|---|---|
| current pace continued | 389m bu | -76.5% |
| analog year (rest-of-my delta) (outstanding sales match · 2023/24) | 527m bu | -68.3% |
| 5y avg pace | 531m bu | -68.0% |
weights · bottom-up 0.4 · pace continued 0.3 · analog 0.2 · 5y avg 0.1
- arcanum mid (raw)
- 459m bu (-72.4% vs wasde, pre-tilts)
- rest of my needs to run
- 4.11× of 5y avg (+311% vs 5y avg)
- arcanum mid (adjusted)
- 459m bu (-72.4%, -1.20b bu vs wasde)
arcanum bias: ▼ wasde likely revised DOWN
current marketing year2025/26
weekly net sales
wk net sales: 12m bu · outstanding: 521m bu
cumulative net sales
wk net sales: 12m bu · outstanding: 521m bu
weekly exports shipped
wk shipped: 63m bu · cum shipped: 2.88b bu
cumulative exports shipped
wk shipped: 63m bu · cum shipped: 2.88b bu
outstanding sales balance
wk net sales: 12m bu · outstanding: 521m bu
destination concentration
wk net sales: 12m bu
next marketing year2026/27
weekly net sales
wk net sales: 12m bu · outstanding: 270m bu
cumulative net sales
wk net sales: 12m bu · outstanding: 270m bu
outstanding sales balance
wk net sales: 12m bu · outstanding: 270m bu
destination concentration
wk net sales: 12m bu
data: usda foreign agricultural service · export sales reporting (esr api) · wasde targets sourced from usda psd online
rebuilt 16 jul 2026 · latest wk 9 jul 2026 · wasde jul 2026 (psd online)