usda fas · export sales · weekly
export sales
weekly forward bookings and shipments of u.s. corn and soybeans via the usda fas export sales reporting program. each commodity shows both the current and next marketing year against a five-year historical band; the cumulative net-sales chart projects forward from this week's pace, the cumulative shipments chart compares that path against the live wasde target, and the destination chart breaks current outstanding sales and shipments-to-date by buyer.
summary
corn
latest data wk ending 21 may 2026
current my (2025/26)
cmy
this week
net sales 40m bu
+10.8% wow
full-my pace
| value | vs 5y avg | vs wasde | |
|---|---|---|---|
| cum net sales | 2.36b bu | +55% | 72% of wasde |
| cum shipped | 2.40b bu | +61% | 73% of wasde |
| outstanding | 788m bu | +49% | — |
implied risk to wasde
- wasde target
- 3.30b bu · may 2026 (psd online)
bottom-up build · primary framework
| shipped to date | 2.40b bu | |
| + outstanding × 7% cancel | 733m bu | of 788m bu balance |
| + new sales contribution (5y avg) | 105m bu | range 27m bu → 188m bu, n=4 |
| = bottom-up base | 3.23b bu |
range · bear (15% cancel + low new sales) 3.09b bu (-6.3%)
→ bull (3% cancel + high new sales) 3.35b bu (+1.5%)
cross-checks · all scenarios
| scenario | eom proj | vs wasde |
|---|---|---|
| bottom-up base (primary) | 3.23b bu | -2.0% |
| current pace continued | 3.32b bu | +0.5% |
| analog year (rest-of-my delta) (outstanding sales match · 2021/22) | 2.95b bu | -10.7% |
| 5y avg pace | 2.97b bu | -10.1% |
weights · bottom-up 0.4 · pace continued 0.3 · analog 0.2 · 5y avg 0.1
- arcanum mid (raw)
- 3.18b bu (-3.8% vs wasde, pre-tilts)
- rest of my needs to run
- 1.58× of 5y avg (+58% vs 5y avg)
importer demand signal · top 5 buyers
| country | share | s/u z | end-stk z | combined | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| mexico | 25% | — | +1.5σ | +1.50σ | loose |
| japan | 18% | — | +1.1σ | +1.14σ | loose |
| korea, republic of | 11% | — | +1.3σ | +1.25σ | loose |
| colombia | 9% | — | +0.6σ | +0.60σ | somewhat loose |
| taiwan | 4% | — | -1.9σ | -1.86σ | tight |
aggregate +1.02σ → tilt
-2.0%
- arcanum mid (adjusted)
- 3.11b bu (-5.7%, -190m bu vs wasde)
arcanum bias: ▼ modest downward bias
next my (2026/27)
nmy
this week
net sales 24m bu
+999.9% wow
full-my pace
| value | vs 5y avg | vs wasde | |
|---|---|---|---|
| cum net sales | 113m bu | -50% | 4% of wasde |
| outstanding | 116m bu | -49% | — |
implied risk to wasde
- wasde target
- 3.15b bu · may 2026 (psd online)
cross-checks · all scenarios
| scenario | eom proj | vs wasde |
|---|---|---|
| current pace continued | 257m bu | -91.8% |
| analog year (rest-of-my delta) (outstanding sales match · 2023/24) | 445m bu | -85.9% |
| 5y avg pace | 400m bu | -87.3% |
weights · bottom-up 0.4 · pace continued 0.3 · analog 0.2 · 5y avg 0.1
- arcanum mid (raw)
- 343m bu (-89.1% vs wasde, pre-tilts)
- rest of my needs to run
- 10.58× of 5y avg (+958% vs 5y avg)
- arcanum mid (adjusted)
- 343m bu (-89.1%, -2.81b bu vs wasde)
arcanum bias: ▼ wasde likely revised DOWN
soybeans
latest data wk ending 21 may 2026
current my (2025/26)
cmy
this week
net sales 11m bu
+105.4% wow
full-my pace
| value | vs 5y avg | vs wasde | |
|---|---|---|---|
| cum net sales | 1.16b bu | -8% | 76% of wasde |
| cum shipped | 1.29b bu | -24% | 84% of wasde |
| outstanding | 171m bu | -16% | — |
implied risk to wasde
- wasde target
- 1.53b bu · may 2026 (psd online)
bottom-up build · primary framework
| shipped to date | 1.29b bu | |
| + outstanding × 7% cancel | 159m bu | of 171m bu balance |
| + new sales contribution (5y avg) | 59m bu | range 39m bu → 85m bu, n=3 |
| = bottom-up base | 1.50b bu |
range · bear (15% cancel + low new sales) 1.47b bu (-3.9%)
→ bull (3% cancel + high new sales) 1.54b bu (+0.5%)
cross-checks · all scenarios
| scenario | eom proj | vs wasde |
|---|---|---|
| bottom-up base (primary) | 1.50b bu | -1.7% |
| current pace continued | 1.44b bu | -5.7% |
| analog year (rest-of-my delta) (outstanding sales match · 2019/20) | 1.60b bu | +4.7% |
| 5y avg pace | 1.49b bu | -2.6% |
weights · bottom-up 0.4 · pace continued 0.3 · analog 0.2 · 5y avg 0.1
- arcanum mid (raw)
- 1.50b bu (-1.7% vs wasde, pre-tilts)
- rest of my needs to run
- 1.19× of 5y avg (+19% vs 5y avg)
importer demand signal · top 5 buyers
| country | share | s/u z | end-stk z | combined | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| china, peoples republic of | 33% | — | +1.2σ | +1.23σ | loose |
| egypt | 12% | — | +1.6σ | +1.56σ | loose |
| mexico | 8% | — | +0.9σ | +0.88σ | somewhat loose |
| indonesia | 5% | — | +1.7σ | +1.72σ | loose |
| japan | 5% | — | -0.8σ | -0.77σ | somewhat tight |
aggregate +1.14σ → tilt
-2.3%
- arcanum mid (adjusted)
- 1.47b bu (-4.0%, -61m bu vs wasde)
arcanum bias: ▼ modest downward bias
next my (2026/27)
nmy
this week
net sales 5m bu
+319.8% wow
full-my pace
| value | vs 5y avg | vs wasde | |
|---|---|---|---|
| cum net sales | 24m bu | -87% | 1% of wasde |
| outstanding | 24m bu | -87% | — |
implied risk to wasde
- wasde target
- 1.63b bu · may 2026 (psd online)
cross-checks · all scenarios
| scenario | eom proj | vs wasde |
|---|---|---|
| analog year (rest-of-my delta) (outstanding sales match · 2023/24) | 423m bu | -74.1% |
| 5y avg pace | 481m bu | -70.5% |
weights · bottom-up 0.4 · pace continued 0.3 · analog 0.2 · 5y avg 0.1
- arcanum mid (raw)
- 442m bu (-72.9% vs wasde, pre-tilts)
- rest of my needs to run
- 3.51× of 5y avg (+251% vs 5y avg)
- arcanum mid (adjusted)
- 442m bu (-72.9%, -1.19b bu vs wasde)
arcanum bias: ▼ wasde likely revised DOWN
current marketing year2025/26
weekly net sales
wk net sales: 40m bu · outstanding: 788m bu
cumulative net sales
wk net sales: 40m bu · outstanding: 788m bu
weekly exports shipped
wk shipped: 64m bu · cum shipped: 2.40b bu
cumulative exports shipped
wk shipped: 64m bu · cum shipped: 2.40b bu
outstanding sales balance
wk net sales: 40m bu · outstanding: 788m bu
destination concentration
wk net sales: 40m bu
next marketing year2026/27
weekly net sales
wk net sales: 24m bu · outstanding: 116m bu
cumulative net sales
wk net sales: 24m bu · outstanding: 116m bu
outstanding sales balance
wk net sales: 24m bu · outstanding: 116m bu
destination concentration
wk net sales: 24m bu
data: usda foreign agricultural service · export sales reporting (esr api) · wasde targets sourced from usda psd online
rebuilt 1 jun 2026 · latest wk 21 may 2026 · wasde may 2026 (psd online)