usda fas · export sales · weekly
export sales
weekly forward bookings and shipments of u.s. corn and soybeans via the usda fas export sales reporting program. each commodity shows both the current and next marketing year against a five-year historical band; the cumulative net-sales chart projects forward from this week's pace, the cumulative shipments chart compares that path against the live wasde target, and the destination chart breaks current outstanding sales and shipments-to-date by buyer.
summary
corn
latest data wk ending 13 aug 2026
current my (2025/26)
cmy
this week
net sales 9m bu
-679.4% wow
full-my pace
| value | vs 5y avg | vs wasde | |
|---|---|---|---|
| cum net sales | 2.63b bu | +60% | 77% of wasde |
| cum shipped | 3.23b bu | +61% | 95% of wasde |
| outstanding | 224m bu | +59% | — |
implied risk to wasde
- wasde target
- 3.40b bu · aug 2026 (psd online)
cross-checks · all scenarios
| scenario | eom proj | vs wasde |
|---|---|---|
| current pace continued | 3.32b bu | -2.4% |
| analog year (rest-of-my delta) (outstanding sales match · 2021/22) | 3.27b bu | -3.8% |
| 5y avg pace | 3.28b bu | -3.4% |
weights · bottom-up 0.4 · pace continued 0.3 · analog 0.2 · 5y avg 0.1
- arcanum mid (raw)
- 3.30b bu (-3.0% vs wasde, pre-tilts)
- rest of my needs to run
- 3.10× of 5y avg (+210% vs 5y avg)
importer demand signal · top 5 buyers
| country | share | s/u z | end-stk z | combined | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| mexico | 24% | — | +1.3σ | +1.31σ | loose |
| japan | 18% | — | +1.1σ | +1.14σ | loose |
| korea, republic of | 10% | — | +1.3σ | +1.25σ | loose |
| colombia | 10% | — | +0.6σ | +0.60σ | somewhat loose |
| taiwan | 4% | — | -1.9σ | -1.86σ | tight |
aggregate +0.95σ → tilt
-1.9%
- arcanum mid (adjusted)
- 3.23b bu (-4.9%, -166m bu vs wasde)
arcanum bias: ▼ modest downward bias
next my (2026/27)
nmy
this week
net sales 32m bu
-71.5% wow
full-my pace
| value | vs 5y avg | vs wasde | |
|---|---|---|---|
| cum net sales | 445m bu | +6% | 14% of wasde |
| outstanding | 448m bu | +5% | — |
implied risk to wasde
- wasde target
- 3.28b bu · aug 2026 (psd online)
cross-checks · all scenarios
| scenario | eom proj | vs wasde |
|---|---|---|
| current pace continued | 540m bu | -83.5% |
| analog year (rest-of-my delta) (outstanding sales match · 2019/20) | 585m bu | -82.1% |
| 5y avg pace | 535m bu | -83.7% |
weights · bottom-up 0.4 · pace continued 0.3 · analog 0.2 · 5y avg 0.1
- arcanum mid (raw)
- 554m bu (-83.1% vs wasde, pre-tilts)
- rest of my needs to run
- 31.36× of 5y avg (+3036% vs 5y avg)
- arcanum mid (adjusted)
- 554m bu (-83.1%, -2.72b bu vs wasde)
arcanum bias: ▼ wasde likely revised DOWN
soybeans
latest data wk ending 13 aug 2026
current my (2025/26)
cmy
this week
net sales 3m bu
-243.9% wow
full-my pace
| value | vs 5y avg | vs wasde | |
|---|---|---|---|
| cum net sales | 1.24b bu | -8% | 82% of wasde |
| cum shipped | 1.47b bu | -20% | 97% of wasde |
| outstanding | 69m bu | -43% | — |
implied risk to wasde
- wasde target
- 1.52b bu · aug 2026 (psd online)
cross-checks · all scenarios
| scenario | eom proj | vs wasde |
|---|---|---|
| current pace continued | 1.50b bu | -1.2% |
| analog year (rest-of-my delta) (outstanding sales match · 2023/24) | 1.50b bu | -1.0% |
| 5y avg pace | 1.51b bu | -0.6% |
weights · bottom-up 0.4 · pace continued 0.3 · analog 0.2 · 5y avg 0.1
- arcanum mid (raw)
- 1.50b bu (-1.0% vs wasde, pre-tilts)
- rest of my needs to run
- 1.24× of 5y avg (+24% vs 5y avg)
importer demand signal · top 5 buyers
| country | share | s/u z | end-stk z | combined | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| china, peoples republic of | 31% | — | +1.2σ | +1.23σ | loose |
| egypt | 12% | — | +2.2σ | +2.25σ | loose |
| mexico | 8% | — | +0.9σ | +0.88σ | somewhat loose |
| indonesia | 6% | — | +5.4σ | +5.43σ | loose |
| japan | 5% | — | -0.8σ | -0.77σ | somewhat tight |
aggregate +1.60σ → tilt
-3.2%
- arcanum mid (adjusted)
- 1.46b bu (-4.2%, -64m bu vs wasde)
arcanum bias: ▼ modest downward bias
next my (2026/27)
nmy
this week
net sales 63m bu
+50.8% wow
full-my pace
| value | vs 5y avg | vs wasde | |
|---|---|---|---|
| cum net sales | 436m bu | -15% | 26% of wasde |
| outstanding | 436m bu | -15% | — |
implied risk to wasde
- wasde target
- 1.66b bu · aug 2026 (psd online)
cross-checks · all scenarios
| scenario | eom proj | vs wasde |
|---|---|---|
| current pace continued | 546m bu | -67.1% |
| analog year (rest-of-my delta) (outstanding sales match · 2022/23) | 522m bu | -68.6% |
| 5y avg pace | 565m bu | -66.0% |
weights · bottom-up 0.4 · pace continued 0.3 · analog 0.2 · 5y avg 0.1
- arcanum mid (raw)
- 541m bu (-67.4% vs wasde, pre-tilts)
- rest of my needs to run
- 9.48× of 5y avg (+848% vs 5y avg)
- arcanum mid (adjusted)
- 541m bu (-67.4%, -1.12b bu vs wasde)
arcanum bias: ▼ wasde likely revised DOWN
current marketing year2025/26
weekly net sales
wk net sales: 9m bu · outstanding: 224m bu
cumulative net sales
wk net sales: 9m bu · outstanding: 224m bu
weekly exports shipped
wk shipped: 78m bu · cum shipped: 3.23b bu
cumulative exports shipped
wk shipped: 78m bu · cum shipped: 3.23b bu
outstanding sales balance
wk net sales: 9m bu · outstanding: 224m bu
destination concentration
wk net sales: 9m bu
next marketing year2026/27
weekly net sales
wk net sales: 32m bu · outstanding: 448m bu
cumulative net sales
wk net sales: 32m bu · outstanding: 448m bu
outstanding sales balance
wk net sales: 32m bu · outstanding: 448m bu
destination concentration
wk net sales: 32m bu
data: usda foreign agricultural service · export sales reporting (esr api) · wasde targets sourced from usda psd online
rebuilt 22 aug 2026 · latest wk 13 aug 2026 · wasde aug 2026 (psd online)