forward-risk board · weather · weekly

forward-risk board

crop-stage-aware weather read across the us corn belt and the brazilian safrinha, keyed on what the markets are repricing next — planting, emergence, pollination, pod-fill.

week ending 12 jul · cpc outlook issued 23 apr

weather — us corn belt

central belt (ia, il) · corn: V8–tassel · moderate

corn 97% planted · soy 97% planted · precip -25 to -15% · temp +3 to +5°f

dry start aids planting pace; soil moisture draw begins — emergence ok for now but V4–V6 recharge watch in 3-4 weeks

eastern belt (in, oh, mi, ky) · corn: V8–tassel (mixed: V8–tassel, pollination (VT–R2)) · elevated

corn 100% planted · soy 99% planted · precip -35 to -25% · temp +4 to +6°f

driest of the belt; planting will accelerate sharply, but subsoil deficit is the story — needs a recharge event by mid-may or yield expectations start to compress

western belt (ne, ks, sd, nd, mn) · corn: V8–tassel (mixed: V8–tassel, pollination (VT–R2)) · low

corn 99% planted · soy 98% planted · precip -10 to +5% · temp +2 to +4°f

close to normal; northern plains (ND/SD/MN) still cold-soil but warming into normal range; no flags this week

southern belt (mo, ar, tn, nc) · corn: V8–tassel (mixed: V8–tassel, pollination (VT–R2)) · low

corn 99% planted · soy 96% planted · precip -15 to +0% · temp +3 to +5°f

delta and mid-south are further along on planting — mild dry tilt helps; nothing stage-threatening

weather — brazil safrinha

center-west (mt, ms, go) · grain fill (R3–R5) · elevated

rainfall 30d 70% of normal · trend drying · GFS dry through 1 may / ECMWF front 3-5 may — split

safrinha is at vegetative–to–reproductive transition; the next 10-14 days define final yield expectation. rainfall deficit building; model split means probability-weighted outcome is skewed drier than consensus

southeast (mg, sp, pr) · grain fill (R3–R5) · moderate

rainfall 30d 90% of normal · trend normal · GFS and ECMWF both show near-normal precip through 1 may

secondary safrinha region tracking near-normal; no acute stress, but sensitive to the same front that hits MT

south (rs) · grain fill (R3–R5) · low

rainfall 30d 105% of normal · trend wetting · GFS and ECMWF both wet through 30 april

RS is soy-focused, safrinha share minor; wetting pattern supports late-season soy but not a significant corn driver

data: usda nass quick stats + noaa cpc outlooks · curated interpretation layer rebuilt 16 jul 2026 · week ending 12 jul